ICC Men's T20 World Cup Africa Sub Regional Qualifier C: Gambia vs Lesotho
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Gambia (100%) · Gambia at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
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Neutral
Gambia
3
Gambia 100%
$1.3K
$56.44
94.6¢ → 99.9¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralGambia at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO looppau | Gambiaavg 99.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$0 | 99% 6809-37 (6846) |
MI mishipolis<$100 | Gambiaavg 36¢ | $37.45 | $77.94 | +$40.5 | 47% 2680-3046 (5726) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Gambiaavg 65.6¢ | $44.99 | $65.86 | +$15.95 | 71% 17592-7139 (24731) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.