ICC Cricket World Cup Challenge League A: Denmark vs Papua New Guinea

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Papua New Guinea (60%) · Papua New Guinea at 100¢ · $171 held · ends Nov 1

Denmark<1¢Papua New Guinea>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Papua New Guinea

Consensus Traders

Papua New Guinea 60%

Total Value

$170.6

Combined PnL

-$11.42

Research grade

NeutralPapua New Guinea at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Papua New Guinea

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Denmark0%

Papua New Guinea100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Papua New Guinea3 traders

Total Value$96.76

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$15.32

Denmark2 traders

Total Value$73.84

Total Shares429

Combined PnL-$26.74

Papua New Guinea — 60%Denmark — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft<$100	Papua New Guineaavg 65¢	$87.01	$72.22	+$15.63	52% 5508-5116 (10624)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Denmarkavg 29.9¢	$98.17	$62.31	-$35.86	63% 22571-13328 (35899)
PA pauleta23<$100	Papua New Guineaavg 90.9¢	$19.99	$19.68	-$0.31	71% 17592-7139 (24731)
MI mishipolisCTR<$100	Denmarkavg 2.1¢	$2.38	$11.54	+$9.12	47% 2680-3046 (5726)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123<$100	Papua New Guineaavg 81¢	$4.86	$4.86	+$0	57% 29-22 (51)

tradecraft<$100

Papua New Guinea

Invested

$87.01

Value

$72.22

PnL

+$15.63

Record

52%

5508-5116 (10624)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

$98.17

Value

$62.31

PnL

-$35.86

Record

63%

22571-13328 (35899)

pauleta23<$100

Papua New Guinea

Invested

$19.99

Value

$19.68

PnL

-$0.31

Record

71%

17592-7139 (24731)

mishipolisCTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

$2.38

Value

$11.54

PnL

+$9.12

Record

47%

2680-3046 (5726)

PLACEYOURBETS123<$100

Papua New Guinea

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.86

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

29-22 (51)

Research grade

NeutralPapua New Guinea at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Papua New Guinea

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Papua New Guinea wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.