Cricket World Cup League 2: UAE vs Netherlands

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Netherlands (40%) · Netherlands at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

UAE<1¢Netherlands>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Netherlands

Consensus Traders

Netherlands 40%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$497.24

Smart Money Entry

67.9¢ → 99.5¢

+46% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

UAE1%

Netherlands100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Netherlands2 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,432

Combined PnL-$485.06

UAE3 traders

Total Value$27.63

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$12.18

Netherlands — 40%UAE — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tradecraft	Netherlandsavg 73.8¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$648.9	52% 5507-5116 (10623)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Netherlandsavg 55.6¢	$257.68	$421.52	+$163.84	63% 22561-13320 (35881)
probabilityCTR<$100	UAEavg 32.5¢	$17.04	$21.76	-$1.78	42% 1225-1668 (2893)
HRTradingCTR<$100	UAEavg 14.3¢	$6.27	$3.96	-$2.31	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	UAEavg 47¢	$10	$1.91	-$8.09	71% 17581-7136 (24717)

tradecraft

Netherlands

Invested

$1,226.28

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$648.9

Record

52%

5507-5116 (10623)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Netherlands

Invested

$257.68

Value

$421.52

PnL

+$163.84

Record

63%

22561-13320 (35881)

probabilityCTR<$100

UAE

Invested

$17.04

Value

$21.76

PnL

-$1.78

Record

42%

1225-1668 (2893)

HRTradingCTR<$100

UAE

Invested

$6.27

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$2.31

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

pauleta23CTR<$100

UAE

Invested

$10

Value

$1.91

PnL

-$8.09

Record

71%

17581-7136 (24717)

Research grade

NeutralNetherlands at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Netherlands

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Netherlands wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.