Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Llaneros FC win on 2026-10-26?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 30¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$71.04

Smart Money Entry

38.2¢ → 29.5¢

-23% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,537

Combined PnL+$15.13

No6 traders

Total Value$769.1

Total Shares1,233

Combined PnL+$55.91

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 38.5¢	$688.28	$694.39	+$6.11	50% 23534-23109 (46643)
oieshfn345	Noavg 52.4¢	$429.13	$500.2	+$67.08	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 38.2¢	$171.5	$174.99	+$3.49	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 65.1¢	$179.7	$168.4	-$11.3	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 37.5¢	$116.62	$118.06	+$1.43	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 35.7¢	$45.86	$49.61	+$4.1	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 70¢	$54.88	$47.82	-$7.06	49% 18204-18601 (36805)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 49¢	$24.5	$30.5	+$6	48% 4379-4828 (9207)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 55¢	$10.7	$11.86	+$1.17	61% 8819-5730 (14549)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 62.9¢	$10.3	$10.32	+$0.02	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$688.28

Value

$694.39

PnL

+$6.11

Record

50%

23534-23109 (46643)

oieshfn345

Invested

$429.13

Value

$500.2

PnL

+$67.08

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$171.5

Value

$174.99

PnL

+$3.49

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$179.7

Value

$168.4

PnL

-$11.3

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$116.62

Value

$118.06

PnL

+$1.43

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.86

Value

$49.61

PnL

+$4.1

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$54.88

Value

$47.82

PnL

-$7.06

Record

49%

18204-18601 (36805)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$24.5

Value

$30.5

PnL

+$6

Record

48%

4379-4828 (9207)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$10.7

Value

$11.86

PnL

+$1.17

Record

61%

8819-5730 (14549)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.32

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (6 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.