Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC win on 2026-10-26?

6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$28.04

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 72.5¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,965

Combined PnL+$28.04

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Noavg 65.7¢	$645.35	$640.43	-$4.92	58% 39668-28654 (68322)
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 68.7¢	$499.57	$516.6	+$17.04	59% 43329-29788 (73117)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 70.9¢	$256.72	$261.05	+$4.33	58% 1578-1158 (2736)
└ No leg	Noavg 70.9¢	$179.44	$182.12	+$2.68
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 27.4¢	$77.28	$78.93	+$1.65
RN1	Noavg 66¢	$132	$144	+$12	54% 54359-46301 (100660)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 65¢	$53.3	$57.4	+$4.1	57% 27008-20057 (47065)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 68¢	$17.23	$17.74	-$0.38	53% 15512-13700 (29212)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 70.4¢	$15.99	$16.2	+$0.21	54% 2262-1899 (4161)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$645.35

Value

$640.43

PnL

-$4.92

Record

58%

39668-28654 (68322)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$499.57

Value

$516.6

PnL

+$17.04

Record

59%

43329-29788 (73117)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$256.72

Value

$261.05

PnL

+$4.33

Record

58%

1578-1158 (2736)

Both legs:

No$179.4470.9¢+$2.68

Yes$77.2827.4¢+$1.65

RN1

Invested

$132

Value

$144

PnL

+$12

Record

54%

54359-46301 (100660)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$53.3

Value

$57.4

PnL

+$4.1

Record

57%

27008-20057 (47065)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$17.23

Value

$17.74

PnL

-$0.38

Record

53%

15512-13700 (29212)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$15.99

Value

$16.2

PnL

+$0.21

Record

54%

2262-1899 (4161)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 73%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.