Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-10-26?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 89¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27

Yes89¢No11¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$106.64

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 89¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes89%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,737

Combined PnL+$102.28

No2 traders

Total Value$254.61

Total Shares494

Combined PnL+$4.36

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO forrestgumper	Yesavg 79.5¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$70.41	48% 575-615 (1190)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 48.3¢	$421.91	$504.63	+$82.72	59% 43528-29978 (73506)
oieshfn345	Yesavg 85.5¢	$199.09	$205.32	+$6.24	58% 1579-1160 (2739)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 50¢	$170.97	$173.81	+$6.76	58% 39876-28789 (68665)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Yesavg 72¢	$149.99	$99.99	-$50	59% 29811-20547 (50358)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$87.4	$87.4	+$0	53% 15647-13821 (29468)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Noavg 52¢	$160	$80.8	-$2.4	57% 27287-20178 (47465)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 86.6¢	$18.57	$13.25	-$5.32	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
RO Rocky31<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$11.9	$10.15	-$1.75	73% 1409-519 (1928)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$1	$0.98	-$0.02	54% 54908-46856 (101764)

forrestgumper

Yes

Invested

$2,148.29

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$70.41

Record

48%

575-615 (1190)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$421.91

Value

$504.63

PnL

+$82.72

Record

59%

43528-29978 (73506)

oieshfn345

Yes

Invested

$199.09

Value

$205.32

PnL

+$6.24

Record

58%

1579-1160 (2739)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$170.97

Value

$173.81

PnL

+$6.76

Record

58%

39876-28789 (68665)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Yes

Invested

$149.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

-$50

Record

59%

29811-20547 (50358)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.4

Value

$87.4

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

15647-13821 (29468)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Invested

$160

Value

$80.8

PnL

-$2.4

Record

57%

27287-20178 (47465)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.57

Value

$13.25

PnL

-$5.32

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Rocky31<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.9

Value

$10.15

PnL

-$1.75

Record

73%

1409-519 (1928)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.02

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.