Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Bucaramanga: Draw at halftime?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $794 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$794.28
$16.8
50.3¢ → 100¢
+99% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Noavg 85.4¢ | $845.75 | $608.91 | -$236.85 | 50% 23737-23281 (47018) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 55.6¢ | $397.97 | $315.12 | -$82.85 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 85.4¢ | $447.79 | $293.79 | -$154 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 51.1¢ | $126.59 | $138.71 | +$12.12 | 59% 43528-29978 (73506) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 44.3¢ | $17.55 | $22.18 | +$4.63 | 54% 2299-1927 (4226) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 44¢ | $21.34 | $21.34 | +$0 | 50% 32071-31667 (63738) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $3.09 | $3.15 | +$0.06 | 50% 11711-11865 (23576) |
Invested
$845.75
Value
$608.91
PnL
-$236.85
Record
50%
23737-23281 (47018)
Both legs:
Invested
$126.59
Value
$138.71
PnL
+$12.12
Record
59%
43528-29978 (73506)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$17.55
Value
$22.18
PnL
+$4.63
Record
54%
2299-1927 (4226)
Invested
$21.34
Value
$21.34
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32071-31667 (63738)
Invested
$3.09
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
11711-11865 (23576)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.