Will Independiente Santa Fe vs. CA Bucaramanga end in a draw?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $555 held · ended Oct 27

Yes10¢No90¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$555

Combined PnL

$23.34

Smart Money Entry

74.7¢ → 90.5¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$435.66

Total Shares552

Combined PnL+$22.97

Yes3 traders

Total Value$119.32

Total Shares537

Combined PnL+$0.37

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 72.9¢	$253.75	$252.32	-$1.43	50% 23737-23281 (47018)
oieshfn345	Noavg 77.8¢	$147.55	$171.57	+$24.02	58% 1579-1160 (2739)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.7¢	$89.68	$77.48	-$12.2	59% 43528-29978 (73506)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 19¢	$28.23	$40.86	+$12.63	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 77¢	$11.39	$11.76	+$0.38	54% 5949-5032 (10981)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$1.05	$0.99	-$0.06	54% 2299-1927 (4226)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$253.75

Value

$252.32

PnL

-$1.43

Record

50%

23737-23281 (47018)

oieshfn345

Invested

$147.55

Value

$171.57

PnL

+$24.02

Record

58%

1579-1160 (2739)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.68

Value

$77.48

PnL

-$12.2

Record

59%

43528-29978 (73506)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.23

Value

$40.86

PnL

+$12.63

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$11.39

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$0.38

Record

54%

5949-5032 (10981)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.