Will CA Bucaramanga win on 2026-10-26?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 27

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$35.71

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 99.5¢

+11% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,970

Combined PnL+$65.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$47.65

Total Shares626

Combined PnL-$30.15

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 87¢	$854.47	$903.12	+$48.65	59% 43528-29978 (73506)
RN1	Noavg 93¢	$355.65	$357.56	+$1.91	54% 54908-46856 (101764)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 98¢	$240.1	$243.78	+$3.68	50% 32071-31667 (63738)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 85.6¢	$177.16	$191.38	+$14.22	50% 11711-11865 (23576)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 96¢	$120	$115.63	-$4.38	76% 3836-1222 (5058)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 77¢	$90.5	$91.42	+$0.92	58% 1579-1160 (2739)
└ No leg	Noavg 77¢	$60.06	$60.84	+$0.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 21.9¢	$30.44	$30.58	+$0.14
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$77.5	$46.55	-$30.95	50% 23737-23281 (47018)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 90.3¢	$19.17	$19.65	+$0.48	54% 2299-1927 (4226)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 82¢	$9.09	$10.37	+$1.28	48% 4386-4837 (9223)
GH ghostorder<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.68	+$0.03	62% 4206-2594 (6800)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.3	$1.1	+$0.8	54% 5949-5032 (10981)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$854.47

Value

$903.12

PnL

+$48.65

Record

59%

43528-29978 (73506)

RN1

Invested

$355.65

Value

$357.56

PnL

+$1.91

Record

54%

54908-46856 (101764)

SnakeBall

Invested

$240.1

Value

$243.78

PnL

+$3.68

Record

50%

32071-31667 (63738)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$177.16

Value

$191.38

PnL

+$14.22

Record

50%

11711-11865 (23576)

ARocky33

Invested

$120

Value

$115.63

PnL

-$4.38

Record

76%

3836-1222 (5058)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$90.5

Value

$91.42

PnL

+$0.92

Record

58%

1579-1160 (2739)

Both legs:

No$60.0677¢+$0.78

Yes$30.4421.9¢+$0.14

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.5

Value

$46.55

PnL

-$30.95

Record

50%

23737-23281 (47018)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$19.17

Value

$19.65

PnL

+$0.48

Record

54%

2299-1927 (4226)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$9.09

Value

$10.37

PnL

+$1.28

Record

48%

4386-4837 (9223)

ghostorder<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.03

Record

62%

4206-2594 (6800)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.3

Value

$1.1

PnL

+$0.8

Record

54%

5949-5032 (10981)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.