Will Fortaleza FC win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 79¢ · $604 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$603.78
-$10.74
78.1¢ → 79¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 76%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 80.8¢ | $333.78 | $307.8 | -$25.98 | 58% 1485-1095 (2580) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $129.12 | $122.68 | -$6.44 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29¢ | $71.04 | $69.77 | -$1.27 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 78.5¢ | $58.08 | $52.91 | -$5.17 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $72.55 | $88.95 | +$16.4 | 58% 32113-23268 (55381) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $42.48 | $51.33 | +$8.85 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $20.45 | $11.05 | -$9.4 | 55% 4919-4092 (9011) |
CA CannaeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $8.76 | $9.74 | +$0.97 | 53% 13639-12083 (25722) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $10.02 | $8.65 | -$1.36 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $3.8 | $3.57 | -$0.23 | 46% 1542-1790 (3332) |
oieshfn345Invested
$333.78
Value
$307.8
PnL
-$25.98
Record
58%
1485-1095 (2580)
Invested
$129.12
Value
$122.68
PnL
-$6.44
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$72.55
Value
$88.95
PnL
+$16.4
Record
58%
32113-23268 (55381)
Invested
$42.48
Value
$51.33
PnL
+$8.85
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
Invested
$20.45
Value
$11.05
PnL
-$9.4
Record
55%
4919-4092 (9011)
Invested
$8.76
Value
$9.74
PnL
+$0.97
Record
53%
13639-12083 (25722)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.02
Value
$8.65
PnL
-$1.36
Record
57%
1670-1266 (2936)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.57
PnL
-$0.23
Record
46%
1542-1790 (3332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.