Will AD Cali win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 62¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.7K
-$20.8
58.5¢ → 61.5¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 58.6¢ | $846.89 | $837.87 | -$9.01 | 59% 13975-9717 (23692) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 41.5¢ | $498.78 | $472.79 | -$24.03 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | Yesavg 41.3¢ | $166.33 | $169.78 | +$3.45 | 54% 13884-11640 (25524) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 58.3¢ | $127.75 | $132.54 | +$4.79 | 50% 8893-8828 (17721) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $93.45 | $97.5 | +$4.06 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $2.36 | $2.32 | -$0.04 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$846.89
Value
$837.87
PnL
-$9.01
Record
59%
13975-9717 (23692)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$498.78
Value
$472.79
PnL
-$24.03
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$166.33
Value
$169.78
PnL
+$3.45
Record
54%
13884-11640 (25524)
Invested
$127.75
Value
$132.54
PnL
+$4.79
Record
50%
8893-8828 (17721)
Invested
$93.45
Value
$97.5
PnL
+$4.06
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.32
PnL
-$0.04
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.