Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Tolima vs. AD Pasto: O/U 1.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 44¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 75%
$2.2K
$219.64
71.6¢ → 43.5¢
-39% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Overavg 83¢ | $931.27 | $920.05 | -$11.22 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 25.5¢ | $205.45 | $418.38 | +$212.94 | 51% 19173-18552 (37725) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 61.1¢ | $327.06 | $339.29 | +$12.23 | 55% 47028-39201 (86229) |
 0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTR | Overavg 58¢ | $289.99 | $299.99 | +$10 | 64% 1032-578 (1610) |
C4 0xc4fe...601fCTR<$100 | Overavg 76¢ | $84.63 | $89.09 | +$4.45 | — |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 59.7¢ | $67.87 | $69.83 | +$1.96 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 26.5¢ | $31.07 | $21.13 | -$9.93 | 50% 9207-9127 (18334) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 79¢ | $18.69 | $17.9 | -$0.79 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
Invested
$931.27
Value
$920.05
PnL
-$11.22
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Invested
$205.45
Value
$418.38
PnL
+$212.94
Record
51%
19173-18552 (37725)
RN1CTRInvested
$327.06
Value
$339.29
PnL
+$12.23
Record
55%
47028-39201 (86229)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22CTRInvested
$289.99
Value
$299.99
PnL
+$10
Record
64%
1032-578 (1610)
Invested
$84.63
Value
$89.09
PnL
+$4.45
Record
—
Invested
$67.87
Value
$69.83
PnL
+$1.96
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
Invested
$31.07
Value
$21.13
PnL
-$9.93
Record
50%
9207-9127 (18334)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$18.69
Value
$17.9
PnL
-$0.79
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.