Will CD Tolima vs. AD Pasto end in a draw?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$27.49

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 70¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,579

Combined PnL-$1.89

Yes4 traders

Total Value$462.32

Total Shares1,459

Combined PnL+$29.39

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 70.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$1.48	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 28.8¢	$306.18	$318.6	+$12.42	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 23.5¢	$48.95	$65.25	+$16.3	55% 5431-4532 (9963)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$59.88	$58.02	-$1.86	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.9¢	$17.93	$20.46	+$2.53	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 70¢	$19.25	$18.84	-$0.41	69% 34652-15570 (50222)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,087.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$1.48

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$306.18

Value

$318.6

PnL

+$12.42

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.95

Value

$65.25

PnL

+$16.3

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$59.88

Value

$58.02

PnL

-$1.86

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.93

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$2.53

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$19.25

Value

$18.84

PnL

-$0.41

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.0%

70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$38.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

138.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.