Will CD Tolima win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 71¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$164.42

Smart Money Entry

45.3¢ → 70.5¢

+56% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,026

Combined PnL+$170.64

Yes2 traders

Total Value$92.93

Total Shares256

Combined PnL-$6.22

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 51.4¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$158.7	57% 1525-1128 (2653)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 52.6¢	$826.81	$759.58	-$67.23	55% 47028-39201 (86229)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.6¢	$443.45	$585.74	+$142.29
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 67.3¢	$383.37	$173.85	-$209.52
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Yesavg 70.7¢	$809.83	$593.13	-$216.71	69% 34652-15570 (50222)
└ No leg	Noavg 64.4¢	$376.04	$406.02	+$29.98
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 70.7¢	$433.79	$187.11	-$246.68
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 30.2¢	$255.79	$292.64	+$36.85	51% 19173-18552 (37725)
GH ghostorderCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$76.5	$77.63	+$1.13	68% 4026-1937 (5963)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 60¢	$44.62	$25.66	-$18.96	50% 8091-8124 (16215)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 60.6¢	$22.65	$15.3	-$7.35	56% 1934-1543 (3477)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$15.31	$11.15	-$4.17	50% 9207-9127 (18334)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 47¢	$10.69	$9.7	-$0.99	46% 1616-1883 (3499)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 29¢	$9.39	$9.39	+$0.16	53% 14291-12537 (26828)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 44¢	$4.4	$3.45	-$0.95	55% 5431-4532 (9963)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,554.26

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$158.7

Record

57%

1525-1128 (2653)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$826.81

Value

$759.58

PnL

-$67.23

Record

55%

47028-39201 (86229)

Both legs:

No$443.4552.6¢+$142.29

Yes$383.3767.3¢-$209.52

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$809.83

Value

$593.13

PnL

-$216.71

Record

69%

34652-15570 (50222)

Both legs:

No$376.0464.4¢+$29.98

Yes$433.7970.7¢-$246.68

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$255.79

Value

$292.64

PnL

+$36.85

Record

51%

19173-18552 (37725)

ghostorderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.5

Value

$77.63

PnL

+$1.13

Record

68%

4026-1937 (5963)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$44.62

Value

$25.66

PnL

-$18.96

Record

50%

8091-8124 (16215)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.65

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$7.35

Record

56%

1934-1543 (3477)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$15.31

Value

$11.15

PnL

-$4.17

Record

50%

9207-9127 (18334)

123987456<$100

Invested

$10.69

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.99

Record

46%

1616-1883 (3499)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$9.39

Value

$9.39

PnL

+$0.16

Record

53%

14291-12537 (26828)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.4

Value

$3.45

PnL

-$0.95

Record

55%

5431-4532 (9963)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.