Will AD Pasto win on 2026-10-25?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 63¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
1 arb excluded
$2.5K
$29.54
88.1¢ → 62.5¢
-29% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | Noavg 88.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$350.01 | 69% 34652-15570 (50222) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.0K | -$416.85 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31¢ | $317.01 | $383.85 | +$66.84 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 90¢ | $548.36 | $540 | +$0.93 | 58% 34591-25199 (59790) |
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 32.4¢ | $176.85 | $186.59 | +$9.74 | 57% 1525-1128 (2653) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 90¢ | $152.91 | $154.4 | +$1.48 | 53% 14291-12537 (26828) |
 RN1 | Noavg 91¢ | $109.68 | $108.6 | -$1.08 | 55% 47028-39201 (86229) |
12 123987456<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $38.01 | $48.87 | +$10.86 | 46% 1616-1883 (3499) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $38.7 | $38.7 | +$0 | 56% 21078-16865 (37943) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $25.33 | $33.53 | +$8.2 | 50% 8091-8124 (16215) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $10.01 | $9.34 | -$0.67 | 56% 1934-1543 (3477) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $5.24 | $5.32 | +$0.08 | 50% 16195-16429 (32624) |
Invested
$1,746.98
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$350.01
Record
69%
34652-15570 (50222)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$548.36
Value
$540
PnL
+$0.93
Record
58%
34591-25199 (59790)
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$176.85
Value
$186.59
PnL
+$9.74
Record
57%
1525-1128 (2653)
Invested
$152.91
Value
$154.4
PnL
+$1.48
Record
53%
14291-12537 (26828)
RN1Invested
$109.68
Value
$108.6
PnL
-$1.08
Record
55%
47028-39201 (86229)
Invested
$38.01
Value
$48.87
PnL
+$10.86
Record
46%
1616-1883 (3499)
Invested
$38.7
Value
$38.7
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
21078-16865 (37943)
Invested
$25.33
Value
$33.53
PnL
+$8.2
Record
50%
8091-8124 (16215)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$10.01
Value
$9.34
PnL
-$0.67
Record
56%
1934-1543 (3477)
Invested
$5.24
Value
$5.32
PnL
+$0.08
Record
50%
16195-16429 (32624)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.