Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Independiente Medellín win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 49¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes52¢No48¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$12.37

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 48.5¢

-38% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$780.72

Total Shares908

Combined PnL+$4.67

Yes6 traders

Total Value$598.57

Total Shares1,700

Combined PnL+$7.71

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 50¢	$759.65	$748.68	-$10.97	58% 1518-1121 (2639)
└ No leg	Noavg 50¢	$501	$485.97	-$15.03
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50.7¢	$258.65	$262.71	+$4.06
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 80.1¢	$721.62	$730.86	+$9.24	51% 18185-17517 (35702)
RN1	Yesavg 50¢	$449.18	$428.62	+$14.32	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 75.5¢	$325.63	$271.68	-$53.94	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
└ No leg	Noavg 75.5¢	$247.95	$169.18	-$78.77
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 36.8¢	$77.68	$102.5	+$24.83
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 20¢	$367.39	$119.36	-$5.63	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$23.44	$24.14	+$0.7	59% 14346-9956 (24302)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 73¢	$25.09	$19.82	-$5.27	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$18.2	$17.75	-$0.45	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$17.5	$17.06	-$0.44	53% 13952-12306 (26258)
PA pauleta23<$100	Yesavg 45.7¢	$15.03	$14.81	-$0.22	71% 18140-7378 (25518)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$5.9	$5.9	+$0	46% 1592-1842 (3434)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.85	$0.98	+$0.13	54% 5269-4412 (9681)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$759.65

Value

$748.68

PnL

-$10.97

Record

58%

1518-1121 (2639)

Both legs:

No$50150¢-$15.03

Yes$258.6550.7¢+$4.06

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$721.62

Value

$730.86

PnL

+$9.24

Record

51%

18185-17517 (35702)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$449.18

Value

$428.62

PnL

+$14.32

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$325.63

Value

$271.68

PnL

-$53.94

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

Both legs:

No$247.9575.5¢-$78.77

Yes$77.6836.8¢+$24.83

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$367.39

Value

$119.36

PnL

-$5.63

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$23.44

Value

$24.14

PnL

+$0.7

Record

59%

14346-9956 (24302)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$25.09

Value

$19.82

PnL

-$5.27

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.2

Value

$17.75

PnL

-$0.45

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.5

Value

$17.06

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

13952-12306 (26258)

pauleta23<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.03

Value

$14.81

PnL

-$0.22

Record

71%

18140-7378 (25518)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.9

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

1592-1842 (3434)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.98

PnL

+$0.13

Record

54%

5269-4412 (9681)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 49%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.