Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-10-25?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 81¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$4.5K
$479.78
59.9¢ → 80.5¢
+34% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 65.3¢ | $1.3K | $1.6K | +$310.66 | 51% 18185-17517 (35702) |
 RN1 | Noavg 66¢ | $719.04 | $877.56 | +$158.52 | 55% 45430-37648 (83078) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 54.9¢ | $710.37 | $833.92 | +$123.54 | 68% 32092-15447 (47539) |
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $732.8 | $443.77 | -$289.03 | 58% 1518-1121 (2639) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 41.5¢ | $199.32 | $391.2 | +$191.88 | 55% 14891-12190 (27081) |
GH ghostorder | Noavg 78¢ | $175.5 | $178.88 | +$3.38 | 67% 3982-1920 (5902) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 44.1¢ | $284.26 | $118.52 | -$17.63 | 58% 33251-24142 (57393) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 43.1¢ | $71.97 | $70.12 | -$1.85 | 53% 13952-12306 (26258) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $6.36 | $7.5 | +$1.14 | 56% 1868-1468 (3336) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40.3¢ | $8.15 | $7.15 | -$1 | 54% 5269-4412 (9681) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 41¢ | $6.95 | $7.12 | +$0.17 | 51% 1410-1333 (2743) |
Invested
$1,255.63
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$310.66
Record
51%
18185-17517 (35702)
RN1Invested
$719.04
Value
$877.56
PnL
+$158.52
Record
55%
45430-37648 (83078)
Invested
$710.37
Value
$833.92
PnL
+$123.54
Record
68%
32092-15447 (47539)
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$732.8
Value
$443.77
PnL
-$289.03
Record
58%
1518-1121 (2639)
Invested
$199.32
Value
$391.2
PnL
+$191.88
Record
55%
14891-12190 (27081)
Invested
$175.5
Value
$178.88
PnL
+$3.38
Record
67%
3982-1920 (5902)
VeryLucky888Invested
$284.26
Value
$118.52
PnL
-$17.63
Record
58%
33251-24142 (57393)
Invested
$71.97
Value
$70.12
PnL
-$1.85
Record
53%
13952-12306 (26258)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.36
Value
$7.5
PnL
+$1.14
Record
56%
1868-1468 (3336)
Invested
$8.15
Value
$7.15
PnL
-$1
Record
54%
5269-4412 (9681)
us391<$100Invested
$6.95
Value
$7.12
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
1410-1333 (2743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.