Will Alianza FC win on 2026-10-25?
9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (90%) · No at 56¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 90%
$15.7K
$265.65
56.1¢ → 55.5¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 10 top traders (90%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH theowalcottCTR | Yesavg 43.8¢ | $7.1K | $7.0K | -$47.99 | 49% 98-103 (201) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 56¢ | $3.8K | $3.8K | -$34.18 | 68% 31590-15191 (46781) |
 RN1 | Noavg 56¢ | $2.8K | $3.1K | +$350 | 55% 44092-36295 (80387) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $685.66 | $670.01 | -$11.87 | 58% 32113-23268 (55381) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 56.4¢ | $611.64 | $612.88 | +$1.24 | 53% 13639-12083 (25722) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 57¢ | $207.54 | $205.72 | -$1.82 | 50% 7831-7882 (15713) |
 us391 | Noavg 56¢ | $126.88 | $128.01 | +$1.13 | 52% 1368-1284 (2652) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 57.4¢ | $77.53 | $85.05 | +$7.52 | 54% 13985-11704 (25689) |
99 0x997c...51f3<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $13.4 | $15.07 | +$1.67 | — |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 56.8¢ | $8.48 | $8.43 | -$0.05 | 57% 1670-1266 (2936) |
Invested
$7,090.24
Value
$7.0K
PnL
-$47.99
Record
49%
98-103 (201)
Invested
$3,828.27
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$34.18
Record
68%
31590-15191 (46781)
RN1Invested
$2,800
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$350
Record
55%
44092-36295 (80387)
VeryLucky888Invested
$685.66
Value
$670.01
PnL
-$11.87
Record
58%
32113-23268 (55381)
Invested
$611.64
Value
$612.88
PnL
+$1.24
Record
53%
13639-12083 (25722)
Invested
$207.54
Value
$205.72
PnL
-$1.82
Record
50%
7831-7882 (15713)
us391Invested
$126.88
Value
$128.01
PnL
+$1.13
Record
52%
1368-1284 (2652)
Invested
$77.53
Value
$85.05
PnL
+$7.52
Record
54%
13985-11704 (25689)
Invested
$13.4
Value
$15.07
PnL
+$1.67
Record
—
HRTrading<$100Invested
$8.48
Value
$8.43
PnL
-$0.05
Record
57%
1670-1266 (2936)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.