Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$4.2K
$171.4
91.7¢ → 96.3¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
585h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 archaic | Noavg 91¢ | $3.0K | $3.1K | +$141.86 | 85% 1847-335 (2182) |
 Zaratustra | Noavg 93.7¢ | $606.14 | $583.41 | +$15.46 | 63% 334-199 (533) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 94.1¢ | $332.3 | $341.3 | +$7.58 | 77% 10791-3277 (14068) |
 Donny.T | Noavg 91.1¢ | $113.68 | $120.54 | +$6.36 | 72% 473-181 (654) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $9.98 | $10.12 | +$0.13 | 73% 174-66 (240) |
archaicInvested
$2,952.81
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$141.86
Record
85%
1847-335 (2182)
ZaratustraInvested
$606.14
Value
$583.41
PnL
+$15.46
Record
63%
334-199 (533)
Invested
$332.3
Value
$341.3
PnL
+$7.58
Record
77%
10791-3277 (14068)
Donny.TInvested
$113.68
Value
$120.54
PnL
+$6.36
Record
72%
473-181 (654)
Invested
$9.98
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$0.13
Record
73%
174-66 (240)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.