Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 54¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
-$51.35
63.7¢ → 53.5¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 54%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
47h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVCTR | Noavg 42.6¢ | $589.35 | $422.26 | +$75.47 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
 Hannah-Montana | Yesavg 60¢ | $120 | $309.41 | -$83.8 | 67% 183-92 (275) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Noavg 40.6¢ | $227.92 | $258.43 | +$33.33 | 50% 357-355 (712) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 57.1¢ | $271.36 | $257.21 | -$6.03 | 54% 264-227 (491) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 57.1¢ | $146.89 | $136.32 | -$9.1 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 45.8¢ | $117.86 | $120.89 | +$3.07 | |
 KimchiCapital | Yesavg 68.4¢ | $318.51 | $246.82 | -$76.35 | 73% 373-137 (510) |
Invested
$589.35
Value
$422.26
PnL
+$75.47
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Hannah-MontanaInvested
$120
Value
$309.41
PnL
-$83.8
Record
67%
183-92 (275)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$227.92
Value
$258.43
PnL
+$33.33
Record
50%
357-355 (712)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$271.36
Value
$257.21
PnL
-$6.03
Record
54%
264-227 (491)
Both legs:
KimchiCapitalInvested
$318.51
Value
$246.82
PnL
-$76.35
Record
73%
373-137 (510)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.