Will Deportes Temuco win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 86¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes14¢No86¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$35.7

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 85.5¢

+61% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$342.66

Total Shares566

Combined PnL+$41.81

Yes2 traders

Total Value$56.13

Total Shares139

Combined PnL-$6.11

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 43¢	$469.86	$477.04	+$7.18	54% 13884-11640 (25524)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43¢	$310.38	$310.03	-$0.35
└ No leg	Noavg 54.4¢	$159.48	$167.01	+$7.53
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 54.6¢	$367.48	$371.09	+$3.61	67% 31285-15084 (46369)
└ No leg	Noavg 54.6¢	$261.52	$268.05	+$6.53
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 45.2¢	$105.96	$103.04	-$2.92
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Noavg 53.2¢	$171	$194.43	+$23.43	55% 1306-1048 (2354)
us391	Noavg 53¢	$129.85	$148.23	+$18.38	52% 1362-1272 (2634)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 44¢	$58.81	$52.8	-$6.01	52% 16365-14925 (31290)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 47¢	$3.43	$3.34	-$0.09	57% 1578-1171 (2749)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$469.86

Value

$477.04

PnL

+$7.18

Record

54%

13884-11640 (25524)

Both legs:

Yes$310.3843¢-$0.35

No$159.4854.4¢+$7.53

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$367.48

Value

$371.09

PnL

+$3.61

Record

67%

31285-15084 (46369)

Both legs:

No$261.5254.6¢+$6.53

Yes$105.9645.2¢-$2.92

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Invested

$171

Value

$194.43

PnL

+$23.43

Record

55%

1306-1048 (2354)

us391

Invested

$129.85

Value

$148.23

PnL

+$18.38

Record

52%

1362-1272 (2634)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.81

Value

$52.8

PnL

-$6.01

Record

52%

16365-14925 (31290)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.43

Value

$3.34

PnL

-$0.09

Record

57%

1578-1171 (2749)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.