Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (51%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Wuxi Wugou win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 49¢ · $677 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$677.07
-$33.51
46.7¢ → 49¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $349.83 | $438.58 | +$88.75 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.6¢ | $338.54 | $348.35 | +$9.81 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 6.1¢ | $11.29 | $90.23 | +$78.94 | |
 RN1CTR | Noavg 47¢ | $251.79 | $221.21 | -$30.59 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.5¢ | $8.48 | $10.78 | +$2.3 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $11.73 | $6.5 | -$5.23 | 50% 8802-8735 (17537) |
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$349.83
Value
$438.58
PnL
+$88.75
Record
57%
1457-1081 (2538)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$251.79
Value
$221.21
PnL
-$30.59
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
Invested
$8.48
Value
$10.78
PnL
+$2.3
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
Invested
$11.73
Value
$6.5
PnL
-$5.23
Record
50%
8802-8735 (17537)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.