Wuxi Wugou vs. Shaanxi Union FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$1.7K
-$118.83
74¢ → 88.5¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 89%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 74¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$92.28 | 55% 43485-35791 (79276) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 32.4¢ | $251.58 | $248.84 | -$2.74 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 74¢ | $247.38 | $227.32 | -$20.06 | 50% 8797-8727 (17524) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 32.7¢ | $164 | $96 | -$3 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 32¢ | $56 | $56 | +$0 | 54% 13805-11589 (25394) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $13.68 | $12.92 | -$0.76 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 65.6¢ | $2.36 | $2.38 | +$0.02 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
RN1Invested
$1,138.12
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$92.28
Record
55%
43485-35791 (79276)
Invested
$251.58
Value
$248.84
PnL
-$2.74
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
Invested
$247.38
Value
$227.32
PnL
-$20.06
Record
50%
8797-8727 (17524)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$164
Value
$96
PnL
-$3
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$56
Value
$56
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
13805-11589 (25394)
Invested
$13.68
Value
$12.92
PnL
-$0.76
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.