Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (58%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Wuxi Wugou vs. Shaanxi Union FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 42¢ · $337 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
$336.58
-$29.68
48.4¢ → 42¢
-13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 58%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Underavg 50.7¢ | $268.67 | $222.65 | -$46.03 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Underavg 44¢ | $92.52 | $107.94 | +$15.42 | 50% 7758-7812 (15570) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 43.4¢ | $4.95 | $5.88 | +$0.93 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.