Will Shaanxi Union FC win on 2026-10-25?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 88¢ · $270 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$270.35
$23.79
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Yesavg 54.9¢ | $115.57 | $118.82 | +$3.24 | 58% 31634-22891 (54525) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 48.9¢ | $49.63 | $76.42 | +$26.79 | 68% 31050-14947 (45997) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.4¢ | $50.32 | $39.87 | -$10.45 | 52% 16262-14802 (31064) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $23.94 | $29.23 | +$5.29 | 50% 7751-7812 (15563) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 54.9¢ | $4.23 | $4.04 | -$0.19 | 55% 43485-35791 (79276) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $2.87 | $1.98 | -$0.89 | 58% 1451-1066 (2517) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$115.57
Value
$118.82
PnL
+$3.24
Record
58%
31634-22891 (54525)
Invested
$49.63
Value
$76.42
PnL
+$26.79
Record
68%
31050-14947 (45997)
Invested
$50.32
Value
$39.87
PnL
-$10.45
Record
52%
16262-14802 (31064)
Invested
$23.94
Value
$29.23
PnL
+$5.29
Record
50%
7751-7812 (15563)
RN1<$100Invested
$4.23
Value
$4.04
PnL
-$0.19
Record
55%
43485-35791 (79276)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.87
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0.89
Record
58%
1451-1066 (2517)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.