Will Jiangxi Dingnan United win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 52¢ · $217 held · ends Oct 25

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$217.48

Combined PnL

-$0.93

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 52¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$90.72

Total Shares189

Combined PnL-$3.78

No3 traders

Total Value$126.76

Total Shares239

Combined PnL+$2.85

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$94.5	$90.72	-$3.78	54% 13750-11556 (25306)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 48.8¢	$61.32	$65.41	+$4.09	68% 30977-14876 (45853)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 54¢	$67.41	$54.13	-$1.69	58% 31536-22821 (54357)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 49.2¢	$6.76	$7.22	+$0.46	58% 1429-1045 (2474)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.5

Value

$90.72

PnL

-$3.78

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$61.32

Value

$65.41

PnL

+$4.09

Record

68%

30977-14876 (45853)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$67.41

Value

$54.13

PnL

-$1.69

Record

58%

31536-22821 (54357)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.76

Value

$7.22

PnL

+$0.46

Record

58%

1429-1045 (2474)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 52%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.