Will Suzhou Dongwu win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $500 held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$500.34

Combined PnL

$73.22

Smart Money Entry

85.5¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$308.76

Total Shares332

Combined PnL+$24.69

Yes4 traders

Total Value$191.58

Total Shares2,326

Combined PnL+$48.53

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 84¢	$211.58	$231.73	+$20.15	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.1¢	$48.58	$93.99	+$45.41	50% 8802-8735 (17537)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 90.1¢	$72.5	$77.04	+$4.54	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$17.26	$54.82	+$37.56	52% 16269-14809 (31078)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$76.18	$41.12	-$35.06	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.03	$1.65	+$0.62	58% 1460-1073 (2533)

oieshfn345

Invested

$211.58

Value

$231.73

PnL

+$20.15

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$48.58

Value

$93.99

PnL

+$45.41

Record

50%

8802-8735 (17537)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$72.5

Value

$77.04

PnL

+$4.54

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.26

Value

$54.82

PnL

+$37.56

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.18

Value

$41.12

PnL

-$35.06

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.62

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.