Will Guandong GZ-Power FC win on 2026-10-25?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$293.52

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 100¢

+115% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$822.18

Total Shares1,155

Combined PnL+$269.42

Yes2 traders

Total Value$145.26

Total Shares190

Combined PnL+$24.1

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 46¢	$431.67	$778.51	+$346.84	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 62¢	$217.5	$141.41	+$24	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 60.4¢	$391.73	$81.47	-$310.26	57% 1457-1081 (2538)
└ No leg	Noavg 12.2¢	$6	$46.34	+$40.34
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 60.4¢	$385.73	$35.12	-$350.6
AR ARocky33<$100	Noavg 49¢	$98	$20	-$78	76% 3205-1028 (4233)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 76¢	$15	$16.97	+$1.97	63% 22561-13320 (35881)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 30.4¢	$6.79	$5.51	-$1.28	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.85	+$0.1	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 16.4¢	$1.31	$1.2	-$0.12	52% 16269-14809 (31078)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$431.67

Value

$778.51

PnL

+$346.84

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$217.5

Value

$141.41

PnL

+$24

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$391.73

Value

$81.47

PnL

-$310.26

Record

57%

1457-1081 (2538)

Both legs:

No$612.2¢+$40.34

Yes$385.7360.4¢-$350.6

ARocky33<$100

Invested

$98

Value

$20

PnL

-$78

Record

76%

3205-1028 (4233)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$15

Value

$16.97

PnL

+$1.97

Record

63%

22561-13320 (35881)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$6.79

Value

$5.51

PnL

-$1.28

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.1

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.12

Record

52%

16269-14809 (31078)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.