Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Guandong GZ-Power FC vs. Suzhou Dongwu end in a draw?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 0.1¢ · $334 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$333.8
-$346.72
77.8¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Noavg 82.9¢ | $277.73 | $262.81 | -$15.11 | 57% 1457-1081 (2538) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 75¢ | $381.17 | $50.8 | -$330.37 | 68% 31119-14954 (46073) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $10.44 | $9.54 | -$0.9 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 17¢ | $5.78 | $5.78 | +$0 | 55% 43492-35800 (79292) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $5.2 | $4.86 | -$0.34 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$277.73
Value
$262.81
PnL
-$15.11
Record
57%
1457-1081 (2538)
Invested
$381.17
Value
$50.8
PnL
-$330.37
Record
68%
31119-14954 (46073)
Invested
$10.44
Value
$9.54
PnL
-$0.9
Record
55%
4838-4027 (8865)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.78
Value
$5.78
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
43492-35800 (79292)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$4.86
PnL
-$0.34
Record
58%
1460-1073 (2533)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.