Will Everton de Viña del Mar win on 2026-10-26?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$120.44

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 99.1¢

+18% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$929.2

Total Shares953

Combined PnL+$94.1

Yes5 traders

Total Value$282.22

Total Shares2,816

Combined PnL+$26.34

No — 38%Yes — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345	Noavg 84.4¢	$769.66	$862.93	+$93.28	58% 1565-1155 (2720)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 24¢	$137.23	$197.25	+$60.02	59% 43129-29562 (72691)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 79¢	$85.66	$62.99	+$1.25	58% 39436-28511 (67947)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$32.47	$44.8	+$12.34	50% 23388-23002 (46390)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$80.39	$36.15	-$44.25	50% 31550-31196 (62746)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$5.36	$3.51	-$1.85	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 74¢	$3.7	$3.28	-$0.42	54% 5914-5009 (10923)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.43	$0.5	+$0.08	49% 11291-11571 (22862)

oieshfn345

Invested

$769.66

Value

$862.93

PnL

+$93.28

Record

58%

1565-1155 (2720)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$137.23

Value

$197.25

PnL

+$60.02

Record

59%

43129-29562 (72691)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$85.66

Value

$62.99

PnL

+$1.25

Record

58%

39436-28511 (67947)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.47

Value

$44.8

PnL

+$12.34

Record

50%

23388-23002 (46390)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.39

Value

$36.15

PnL

-$44.25

Record

50%

31550-31196 (62746)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.36

Value

$3.51

PnL

-$1.85

Record

61%

8719-5662 (14381)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.7

Value

$3.28

PnL

-$0.42

Record

54%

5914-5009 (10923)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.43

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.08

Record

49%

11291-11571 (22862)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.