Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-10-26?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (25%) · No at 43¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 25%
$1.1K
$10.13
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA marketmeshCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $705.16 | $721.95 | +$16.79 | 59% 86-60 (146) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 58¢ | $174 | $171 | -$3 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
CA Cannae | Yesavg 58¢ | $171.28 | $168.33 | -$2.95 | 53% 15234-13442 (28676) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $41.18 | $40.47 | -$0.71 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
Invested
$705.16
Value
$721.95
PnL
+$16.79
Record
59%
86-60 (146)
VeryLucky888Invested
$174
Value
$171
PnL
-$3
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$171.28
Value
$168.33
PnL
-$2.95
Record
53%
15234-13442 (28676)
Invested
$41.18
Value
$40.47
PnL
-$0.71
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.