Will CD Universidad de Concepción win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 85¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes15¢No85¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$375.95

Smart Money Entry

64.6¢ → 85¢

+32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,286

Combined PnL-$9.25

Yes2 traders

Total Value$490.39

Total Shares2,971

Combined PnL-$366.7

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 64.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$14.61	63% 1463-877 (2340)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 64¢	$646.58	$608.55	+$1.09	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
oieshfn345	Noavg 63.4¢	$546.17	$557.47	+$11.31	58% 1518-1121 (2639)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 29¢	$852.78	$485.89	-$366.89	51% 18185-17517 (35702)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 81.1¢	$34.46	$27.2	-$7.26	56% 1868-1468 (3336)
CA Cannae<$100	Noavg 64¢	$19.02	$19.22	+$0.2	53% 13952-12306 (26258)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.8¢	$4.31	$4.5	+$0.19	50% 7952-8033 (15985)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 84¢	$4.2	$4.23	+$0.02	54% 5269-4412 (9681)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$1,105.05

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$14.61

Record

63%

1463-877 (2340)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$646.58

Value

$608.55

PnL

+$1.09

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

oieshfn345

Invested

$546.17

Value

$557.47

PnL

+$11.31

Record

58%

1518-1121 (2639)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$852.78

Value

$485.89

PnL

-$366.89

Record

51%

18185-17517 (35702)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$34.46

Value

$27.2

PnL

-$7.26

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Cannae<$100

Invested

$19.02

Value

$19.22

PnL

+$0.2

Record

53%

13952-12306 (26258)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.31

Value

$4.5

PnL

+$0.19

Record

50%

7952-8033 (15985)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$4.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

5269-4412 (9681)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.6%

85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.