Will CD Limache win on 2026-10-25?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (78%) · Yes at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25

Yes59¢No41¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 78%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$277.33

Smart Money Entry

44.1¢ → 59¢

+34% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes59%

No41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,119

Combined PnL-$272.13

No2 traders

Total Value$332.23

Total Shares770

Combined PnL-$5.21

Yes — 78%No — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$635.83	$649.14	+$13.31	58% 1518-1121 (2639)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 37.7¢	$225.56	$335.04	+$109.48
└ No leg	Noavg 57.5¢	$410.27	$314.11	-$96.16
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 55¢	$895.93	$631.29	-$264.64	51% 18185-17517 (35702)
SP spyGoodLuck77	Yesavg 37.6¢	$548.51	$554.44	+$5.93	63% 1463-877 (2340)
RN1CTR	Noavg 43¢	$306.51	$299.38	-$3.56	55% 45430-37648 (83078)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 37¢	$222	$204	+$3	58% 33251-24142 (57393)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 37.6¢	$111.55	$100.98	-$10.57	55% 14891-12190 (27081)
CA Cannae<$100	Yesavg 37.4¢	$66.94	$60.78	-$6.15	53% 13952-12306 (26258)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$34.49	$32.85	-$1.64	68% 32092-15447 (47539)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$5.4	$5.7	+$0.3	54% 5269-4412 (9681)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$1.12	$1.13	+$0.01	56% 1868-1468 (3336)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$635.83

Value

$649.14

PnL

+$13.31

Record

58%

1518-1121 (2639)

Both legs:

Yes$225.5637.7¢+$109.48

No$410.2757.5¢-$96.16

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$895.93

Value

$631.29

PnL

-$264.64

Record

51%

18185-17517 (35702)

spyGoodLuck77

Yes

Invested

$548.51

Value

$554.44

PnL

+$5.93

Record

63%

1463-877 (2340)

RN1CTR

Invested

$306.51

Value

$299.38

PnL

-$3.56

Record

55%

45430-37648 (83078)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$222

Value

$204

PnL

+$3

Record

58%

33251-24142 (57393)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$111.55

Value

$100.98

PnL

-$10.57

Record

55%

14891-12190 (27081)

Cannae<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.94

Value

$60.78

PnL

-$6.15

Record

53%

13952-12306 (26258)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Invested

$34.49

Value

$32.85

PnL

-$1.64

Record

68%

32092-15447 (47539)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

54%

5269-4412 (9681)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.12

Value

$1.13

PnL

+$0.01

Record

56%

1868-1468 (3336)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 59%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 9 top traders (78%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.