CD Palestino vs. CSD Colo-Colo: O/U 1.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $919 held · ended Oct 25

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

Total Value

$918.76

Combined PnL

$178.86

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 99.9¢

+21% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$904.69

Total Shares830

Combined PnL+$170.25

Under1 trader

Total Value$14.07

Total Shares32

Combined PnL+$8.61

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 82¢	$669.92	$830.76	+$160.84	55% 44397-36651 (81048)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 82¢	$44.28	$53.95	+$9.67	50% 7903-7970 (15873)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$20.23	$19.98	-$0.25	56% 1802-1398 (3200)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 17¢	$5.46	$14.07	+$8.61	58% 32399-23548 (55947)

RN1

Over

Invested

$669.92

Value

$830.76

PnL

+$160.84

Record

55%

44397-36651 (81048)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$44.28

Value

$53.95

PnL

+$9.67

Record

50%

7903-7970 (15873)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$20.23

Value

$19.98

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

1802-1398 (3200)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.46

Value

$14.07

PnL

+$8.61

Record

58%

32399-23548 (55947)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.