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HoustonHoustonUtahUtahUtah
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Houston — but Utah won instead.
Spread: Houston (-1.5)
Resolved Utah. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Houston. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
4
Houston 50%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$217
Combined PnL
-$568.04
Smart Money Signal
Houston
1 of 4 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Houston0%
Utah100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Houston1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,257
Combined PnL-$591.99
Utah3 traders
Total Value$80
Total Shares80
Combined PnL+$23.95
Houston — 25%Utah — 75%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NA NatoAlfistaCTR | Houstonavg 47.1¢ | $591.99 | — | -$591.99 | 65% 2704-1455 (4159) |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Houstonavg 45.3¢ | $247.71 | $137 | -$110.71 | 53% 6446-5769 (12215) |
| └ Houston leg | Houstonavg 45.3¢ | $166.81 | — | -$166.81 | |
| └ Utah leg | Utahavg 59.1¢ | $80.9 | $137 | +$56.1 | |
TA takeormake<$100 | Utahavg 70.1¢ | $56.05 | $80 | +$23.95 | 55% 2949-2408 (5357) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Utahavg 49.6¢ | — | — | +$0 | 55% 11733-9634 (21367) |
PR primm<$100 | Utahavg 53¢ | — | — | +$0 | 45% 973-1166 (2139) |
NA
NatoAlfistaCTRInvested
$591.99
Value
—
PnL
-$591.99
Record
65%
2704-1455 (4159)
JU
justaluckydudeARB<$100Invested
$247.71
Value
$137
PnL
-$110.71
Record
53%
6446-5769 (12215)
Both legs:
Houston$166.8145.3¢-$166.81
Utah$80.959.1¢+$56.1
TA
takeormake<$100Invested
$56.05
Value
$80
PnL
+$23.95
Record
55%
2949-2408 (5357)
HO
HomeRunHazard<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
11733-9634 (21367)
PR
primm<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
973-1166 (2139)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x33999a04...f0d1ca
Slug
cfb-hou-utah-2026-10-24-spread-away-1pt5