Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (69%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-10-27?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 31¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$2.3K
-$34.14
28.3¢ → 31¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 69%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xD67942cD1c1AF4287F80Fe5F11A01DB65Cf491A0-1767718931081CTR | Noavg 28.9¢ | $1.3K | $1.2K | -$62.2 | 49% 173-181 (354) |
GO gotozer0 | Yesavg 71.6¢ | $731.67 | $740.95 | +$9.28 | 66% 278-145 (423) |
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Yesavg 73.2¢ | $400 | $290 | -$3 | 57% 570-427 (997) |
GG GGLPL<$100 | Yesavg 77.3¢ | $54.13 | $50.74 | -$3.39 | 50% 646-642 (1288) |
LA lavendergoomsCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $13.66 | $38.83 | +$25.17 | 53% 2585-2308 (4893) |
Invested
$1,284.65
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$62.2
Record
49%
173-181 (354)
Invested
$731.67
Value
$740.95
PnL
+$9.28
Record
66%
278-145 (423)
Invested
$400
Value
$290
PnL
-$3
Record
57%
570-427 (997)
Invested
$54.13
Value
$50.74
PnL
-$3.39
Record
50%
646-642 (1288)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$38.83
PnL
+$25.17
Record
53%
2585-2308 (4893)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.