Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 80¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$304.1
Research grade
NeutralYes at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-67 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
170h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 81.3¢ | $1.6K | $915.67 | -$193.26 | 38% 273-442 (715) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 81.3¢ | $744.19 | $567.72 | -$207.51 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 32.8¢ | $300.7 | $347.95 | +$14.25 | |
 viniiCTR | Noavg 10.5¢ | $185.25 | $614.57 | +$429.32 | 73% 2622-962 (3584) |
PK pkz | Yesavg 78.8¢ | $538.04 | $443.88 | -$94.17 | 57% 454-345 (799) |
 SocialistaCTR | Noavg 43.4¢ | $170.41 | $138.65 | -$31.06 | 63% 2632-1550 (4182) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$1,551.58
Value
$915.67
PnL
-$193.26
Record
38%
273-442 (715)
Both legs:
viniiCTRInvested
$185.25
Value
$614.57
PnL
+$429.32
Record
73%
2622-962 (3584)
Invested
$538.04
Value
$443.88
PnL
-$94.17
Record
57%
454-345 (799)
SocialistaCTRInvested
$170.41
Value
$138.65
PnL
-$31.06
Record
63%
2632-1550 (4182)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.