Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Inter Toronto FC vs. Atletico Ottawa end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 24¢ · $415 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$415.24
$45.61
23.5¢ → 23.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345CTR | Yesavg 23.3¢ | $308.26 | $357.27 | +$48.86 | 57% 1494-1105 (2599) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $30.4 | $30.4 | +$0 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $17.39 | $14.09 | -$3.3 | 52% 5539-5161 (10700) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $11.3 | $11.48 | +$0.17 | 55% 4953-4129 (9082) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $2.12 | $2 | -$0.12 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
oieshfn345CTRInvested
$308.26
Value
$357.27
PnL
+$48.86
Record
57%
1494-1105 (2599)
Invested
$30.4
Value
$30.4
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$17.39
Value
$14.09
PnL
-$3.3
Record
52%
5539-5161 (10700)
Invested
$11.3
Value
$11.48
PnL
+$0.17
Record
55%
4953-4129 (9082)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.12
Value
$2
PnL
-$0.12
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.