Will FC Supra Du Quebec win on 2026-10-25?

1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 61¢ · $363 held · ended Oct 25

Yes61¢No39¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$362.67

Combined PnL

$2.26

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes61%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$147.91

Total Shares202

Combined PnL-$23.7

No2 traders

Total Value$75.79

Total Shares182

Combined PnL+$25.96

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 72.8¢	$171.61	$147.91	-$23.7	68% 31694-15247 (46941)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Noavg 41.9¢	$140.29	$138.96	-$7.34	54% 14075-11776 (25851)
└ No leg	Noavg 41.9¢	$93.06	$86.58	-$6.48
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 55¢	$47.23	$52.38	-$0.86
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Noavg 25¢	$48.14	$74.22	+$26.08	57% 1494-1105 (2599)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$1.69	$1.57	-$0.12	58% 32272-23432 (55704)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$171.61

Value

$147.91

PnL

-$23.7

Record

68%

31694-15247 (46941)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Invested

$140.29

Value

$138.96

PnL

-$7.34

Record

54%

14075-11776 (25851)

Both legs:

No$93.0641.9¢-$6.48

Yes$47.2355¢-$0.86

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Invested

$48.14

Value

$74.22

PnL

+$26.08

Record

57%

1494-1105 (2599)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.12

Record

58%

32272-23432 (55704)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 61%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.