Will Cavalry FC vs. Vancouver FC end in a draw?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 75¢ · $172 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$172.09
-$2.13
75¢ → 75¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 75¢ | $106.99 | $107.05 | +$0.06 | 54% 14075-11776 (25851) |
 oieshfn345CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $58.04 | $58.04 | -$2.32 | 57% 1494-1105 (2599) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.75 | +$0 | 55% 4953-4129 (9082) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $3.12 | $3.26 | +$0.13 | 57% 1726-1316 (3042) |
Invested
$106.99
Value
$107.05
PnL
+$0.06
Record
54%
14075-11776 (25851)
oieshfn345CTR<$100Invested
$58.04
Value
$58.04
PnL
-$2.32
Record
57%
1494-1105 (2599)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.75
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
4953-4129 (9082)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.12
Value
$3.26
PnL
+$0.13
Record
57%
1726-1316 (3042)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.