Will Cavalry FC win on 2026-10-25?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 79¢ · $336 held · ended Oct 25

Yes79¢No21¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$336.12

Combined PnL

-$5.25

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 79¢

+33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes79%

No21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$332.25

Total Shares562

Combined PnL-$5.37

No1 trader

Total Value$3.87

Total Shares9

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes — 86%No — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LE LeLynxMalynx	Yesavg 57.4¢	$217.65	$208.44	-$9.21	54% 13985-11704 (25689)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Yesavg 71.3¢	$41.39	$45.51	+$4.12	68% 31590-15191 (46781)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 57¢	$28.5	$27.5	-$1	52% 5532-5156 (10688)
99 0x997c...51f3<$100	Yesavg 56.5¢	$27.59	$26.86	-$0.74	—
oieshfn345<$100	Yesavg 79¢	$15.8	$16	+$0.2	58% 1485-1095 (2580)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$6.69	$7.94	+$1.25	55% 4919-4092 (9011)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 43.6¢	$3.75	$3.87	+$0.12	57% 1670-1266 (2936)

LeLynxMalynx

Yes

Invested

$217.65

Value

$208.44

PnL

-$9.21

Record

54%

13985-11704 (25689)

UpTheBlues<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.39

Value

$45.51

PnL

+$4.12

Record

68%

31590-15191 (46781)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.5

Value

$27.5

PnL

-$1

Record

52%

5532-5156 (10688)

0x997c...51f3<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.59

Value

$26.86

PnL

-$0.74

Record

—

oieshfn345<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.8

Value

$16

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

1485-1095 (2580)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.69

Value

$7.94

PnL

+$1.25

Record

55%

4919-4092 (9011)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.87

PnL

+$0.12

Record

57%

1670-1266 (2936)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.