TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (47%) · Under at 95¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 25

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 47%

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$3.7K

Smart Money Entry

45.7¢ → 94.5¢

+107% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares15,157

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Over8 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares15,114

Combined PnL$-2.3K

Under — 47%Over — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 45.7¢	$6.3K	$12.3K	+$5.9K	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Overavg 65.2¢	$3.1K	$1.9K	$-1.2K	58% 526-379 (905)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 16.4¢	$1.3K	$699.22	-$646.87	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
MR MrBentlyCTR	Overavg 67¢	$998.3	$581.1	-$417.2	52% 457-414 (871)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 30¢	$150	$305	-$12.5	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 59¢	$295	$305	+$10	51% 983-935 (1918)
LI Lilybaeum	Underavg 54.6¢	$153.43	$196.47	+$43.04	65% 12554-6676 (19230)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Overavg 39.4¢	$72.77	$72.06	-$0.72	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 34.7¢	$23.36	$41.02	+$17.66	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 8.2¢	$32.59	$33.61	+$1.02	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
RN1<$100	Underavg 53.2¢	$18.51	$21.22	+$2.72	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 72¢	$20.02	$20.28	+$0.26	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
CA Cannae<$100	Underavg 25¢	$8.13	$19.85	+$11.71	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$4.78	$4.06	-$0.73	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 59¢	$2.95	$1.95	-$1.38	56% 2033-1584 (3617)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$6,330.51

Value

$12.3K

PnL

+$5.9K

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Over

Invested

$3,094.96

Value

$1.9K

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

58%

526-379 (905)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,346.09

Value

$699.22

PnL

-$646.87

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

MrBentlyCTR

Over

Invested

$998.3

Value

$581.1

PnL

-$417.2

Record

52%

457-414 (871)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$150

Value

$305

PnL

-$12.5

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$295

Value

$305

PnL

+$10

Record

51%

983-935 (1918)

Lilybaeum

Under

Invested

$153.43

Value

$196.47

PnL

+$43.04

Record

65%

12554-6676 (19230)

fooooolCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72.77

Value

$72.06

PnL

-$0.72

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$23.36

Value

$41.02

PnL

+$17.66

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.59

Value

$33.61

PnL

+$1.02

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$18.51

Value

$21.22

PnL

+$2.72

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.02

Value

$20.28

PnL

+$0.26

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Cannae<$100

Under

Invested

$8.13

Value

$19.85

PnL

+$11.71

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.78

Value

$4.06

PnL

-$0.73

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.95

Value

$1.95

PnL

-$1.38

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.