TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (38%) · Under at 82¢ · $35K held · ended Oct 25

Over18¢Under82¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$34.5K

Combined PnL

$6.0K

Smart Money Entry

54.4¢ → 82¢

+51% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over18%

Under82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$22.6K

Total Shares27,276

Combined PnL+$6.0K

Over8 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,349

Combined PnL+$73.93

Under — 38%Over — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 53.7¢	$10.4K	$15.1K	+$4.8K	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 45¢	$7.5K	$7.8K	+$357.29	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47.6¢	$3.6K	$5.6K	+$2.0K
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$3.9K	$2.2K	$-1.7K
RN1	Underavg 57¢	$5.9K	$7.0K	+$1.1K	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
IM impaulCTR	Overavg 42¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$720	62% 179-110 (289)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Overavg 90¢	$2.3K	$1.7K	-$556.25	65% 1538-823 (2361)
AD adururu	Underavg 64¢	$286.12	$283.88	-$2.24	54% 292-248 (540)
CA CannaeCTR	Overavg 89¢	$178.97	$137.08	-$41.89	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 31.1¢	$133.18	$102.87	-$30.31	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR	Overavg 76¢	$114	$99	-$15	58% 526-379 (905)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 23.6¢	$83.71	$95.99	+$12.29	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
└ Over leg	Overavg 23.6¢	$58.87	$53.6	-$5.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$24.84	$42.39	+$17.55
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 12.2¢	$25.55	$71.08	+$45.52	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 27.9¢	$24.85	$56.65	+$31.8	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 72¢	$11.84	$10.85	-$0.99	57% 5953-4423 (10376)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Overavg 47.2¢	$36.55	$9.04	+$0.89	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
PL PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100	Overavg 89¢	$9.79	$7.26	-$2.53	57% 30-23 (53)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$10,364.3

Value

$15.1K

PnL

+$4.8K

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$7,451.14

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$357.29

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

Both legs:

Under$3,598.847.6¢+$2.0K

Over$3,852.3445¢$-1.7K

RN1

Under

Invested

$5,891.24

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

impaulCTR

Over

Invested

$1,260

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$720

Record

62%

179-110 (289)

darkumbreon88CTR

Over

Invested

$2,275.56

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$556.25

Record

65%

1538-823 (2361)

adururu

Under

Invested

$286.12

Value

$283.88

PnL

-$2.24

Record

54%

292-248 (540)

CannaeCTR

Over

Invested

$178.97

Value

$137.08

PnL

-$41.89

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$133.18

Value

$102.87

PnL

-$30.31

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

BBQChickenisthebestttCTR

Over

Invested

$114

Value

$99

PnL

-$15

Record

58%

526-379 (905)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$83.71

Value

$95.99

PnL

+$12.29

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

Both legs:

Over$58.8723.6¢-$5.26

Under$24.8446¢+$17.55

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$25.55

Value

$71.08

PnL

+$45.52

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$24.85

Value

$56.65

PnL

+$31.8

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.84

Value

$10.85

PnL

-$0.99

Record

57%

5953-4423 (10376)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.55

Value

$9.04

PnL

+$0.89

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

PLACEYOURBETS123CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.79

Value

$7.26

PnL

-$2.53

Record

57%

30-23 (53)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 13 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.