Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (60%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 0.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 40¢ · $14K held · ended Oct 25

Over60¢Under40¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.7K

Combined PnL

$2.6K

Smart Money Entry

27.9¢ → 39.8¢

+43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over60%

Under40%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.3K

Total Shares24,244

Combined PnL+$2.6K

Over4 traders

Total Value$667.61

Total Shares675

Combined PnL+$35.11

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.1¢	$5.4K	$7.4K	+$2.0K	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 86.6¢	$3.9K	$3.7K	-$206.55	52% 16298-14844 (31142)
└ Over leg	Overavg 86.6¢	$3.1K	$2.3K	-$859.72
└ Under leg	Underavg 20.2¢	$767.91	$1.4K	+$653.17
RN1CTR	Underavg 31¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$305.49	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 10.8¢	$212.79	$485.5	+$272.72	50% 8820-8762 (17582)
LU LuckyLoo	Overavg 86.7¢	$429.5	$482.45	+$52.95	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Overavg 97.4¢	$123.68	$123.84	+$0.16	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
FO forrestgumperCTR<$100	Underavg 33.4¢	$52.39	$60.36	+$7.97	48% 546-591 (1137)
FO foooool<$100	Overavg 87.3¢	$74.38	$56.38	-$18.01	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Overavg 62.5¢	$4.94	$4.95	+$0.02	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100	Underavg 19.8¢	$9.9	$1.25	-$8.65	47% 3603-4048 (7651)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$5,400.91

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,879.25

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$206.55

Record

52%

16298-14844 (31142)

Both legs:

Over$3,111.3486.6¢-$859.72

Under$767.9120.2¢+$653.17

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$1,075.97

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$305.49

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$212.79

Value

$485.5

PnL

+$272.72

Record

50%

8820-8762 (17582)

LuckyLoo

Over

Invested

$429.5

Value

$482.45

PnL

+$52.95

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

LeLynxMalynx

Over

Invested

$123.68

Value

$123.84

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

forrestgumperCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.39

Value

$60.36

PnL

+$7.97

Record

48%

546-591 (1137)

foooool<$100

Over

Invested

$74.38

Value

$56.38

PnL

-$18.01

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Over

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.9

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$8.65

Record

47%

3603-4048 (7651)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.0%

39.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$138.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

238.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.