Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (88%) · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 74¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 25

Bayer 04 Leverkusen27¢TSG 1899 Hoffenheim73¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Consensus Traders

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 88%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

-$32.79

Smart Money Entry

73.2¢ → 73.5¢

+0% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralTSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Bayer 04 Leverkusen27%

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim7 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares8,027

Combined PnL-$33.88

Bayer 04 Leverkusen1 trader

Total Value$57.28

Total Shares216

Combined PnL+$1.08

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim — 88%Bayer 04 Leverkusen — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 73.7¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$43.9	52% 16158-14689 (30847)
OM omnibus-076daa	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 73¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0	59% 13747-9558 (23305)
CA Cannae	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 72.1¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$13.86	53% 13553-11995 (25548)
FO forecastication4	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 73¢	$700	$507.5	-$3.5	48% 912-976 (1888)
SA Saber-greed<$100	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 74¢	$69.5	$68.56	-$0.94	59% 2251-1567 (3818)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 72.6¢	$66.03	$66.43	+$0.4	54% 13697-11517 (25214)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Bayer 04 Leverkusenavg 26¢	$56.2	$57.28	+$1.08	61% 4366-2803 (7169)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	TSG 1899 Hoffenheimavg 72¢	$29.52	$29.93	+$0.21	75% 2629-893 (3522)

GoalLineGhost

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$3,188.99

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$43.9

Record

52%

16158-14689 (30847)

omnibus-076daa

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$1,408.79

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

13747-9558 (23305)

Cannae

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$1,070.79

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$13.86

Record

53%

13553-11995 (25548)

forecastication4

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$700

Value

$507.5

PnL

-$3.5

Record

48%

912-976 (1888)

Saber-greed<$100

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$69.5

Value

$68.56

PnL

-$0.94

Record

59%

2251-1567 (3818)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$66.03

Value

$66.43

PnL

+$0.4

Record

54%

13697-11517 (25214)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Invested

$56.2

Value

$57.28

PnL

+$1.08

Record

61%

4366-2803 (7169)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

Invested

$29.52

Value

$29.93

PnL

+$0.21

Record

75%

2629-893 (3522)

Research grade

NeutralTSG 1899 Hoffenheim at 74%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

TSG 1899 Hoffenheim

7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on TSG 1899 Hoffenheim. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedTSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that TSG 1899 Hoffenheim wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.