Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 30¢ · $56 held · ends Oct 25

Yes30¢No70¢Ends Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$56.32

Combined PnL

-$3.53

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$52.24

Total Shares158

Combined PnL-$3.61

No1 trader

Total Value$4.08

Total Shares6

Combined PnL+$0.09

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$31.19	$31.19	-$2.36	53% 13575-12013 (25588)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$16.5	$16.5	-$1.25	54% 13750-11556 (25306)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$4.55	$4.55	+$0	49% 10977-11337 (22314)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Noavg 65¢	$3.79	$4.08	+$0.09	65% 1525-819 (2344)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.19

Value

$31.19

PnL

-$2.36

Record

53%

13575-12013 (25588)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.5

PnL

-$1.25

Record

54%

13750-11556 (25306)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

10977-11337 (22314)

darkumbreon88<$100

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0.09

Record

65%

1525-819 (2344)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 30%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.1%

30.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$211.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

311.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.