TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 1st Half O/U 2.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Over2¢Under98¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$34.56

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 98¢

+2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over2%

Under98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,941

Combined PnL+$35.75

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.29

Total Shares156

Combined PnL-$1.19

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 98¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$0	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 76¢	$123.5	$159.25	+$35.75	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 2.1¢	$3.16	$3.16	+$0	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$1.32	$0.13	-$1.19	54% 13818-11600 (25418)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,742.46

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$123.5

Value

$159.25

PnL

+$35.75

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.16

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.32

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$1.19

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.