TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 83%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$598.07

Smart Money Entry

83.5¢ → 100¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,210

Combined PnL+$912.55

Over1 trader

Total Value$0.52

Total Shares1,050

Combined PnL-$314.47

Under — 83%Over — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 92.6¢	$4.3K	$4.6K	+$338.99	72% 1833-721 (2554)
RN1	Underavg 68¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$510.16	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 48¢	$38.28	$74.97	+$36.69	50% 7766-7815 (15581)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 49¢	$18.9	$36.26	+$17.36	54% 13818-11600 (25418)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 70¢	$21.85	$31.2	+$9.35	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR	Overavg 30¢	$315	$0.52	-$314.47	38% 154-254 (408)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$4,285.28

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$338.99

Record

72%

1833-721 (2554)

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,924.37

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$510.16

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$38.28

Value

$74.97

PnL

+$36.69

Record

50%

7766-7815 (15581)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$18.9

Value

$36.26

PnL

+$17.36

Record

54%

13818-11600 (25418)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$21.85

Value

$31.2

PnL

+$9.35

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR

Over

Invested

$315

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$314.47

Record

38%

154-254 (408)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.