TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 100¢ · $11K held · ended Oct 25

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$2.1K

Smart Money Entry

71.4¢ → 100¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares11,869

Combined PnL+$2.2K

Over3 traders

Total Value$528.94

Total Shares4,069

Combined PnL-$49.71

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72	Underavg 73.9¢	$4.9K	$7.0K	+$2.0K	72% 1833-721 (2554)
RN1	Underavg 53¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$179.34	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
MA maxiplayer	Underavg 96.1¢	$2.1K	$984.74	-$93.57	77% 574-175 (749)
eskilloCTR	Overavg 4¢	$101.99	$331.47	+$229.48	40% 472-700 (1172)
0X 0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609	Underavg 60¢	$187.49	$225	+$37.51	81% 1826-436 (2262)
0X 0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR	Overavg 47¢	$376	$104	-$272	38% 154-254 (408)
TO torta.techCTR	Overavg 14¢	$100.66	$93.47	-$7.19	75% 6123-2031 (8154)
ZX zxc368<$100	Underavg 99.9¢	$7.36	$6.41	-$0.95	99% 9029-127 (9156)

0x8191c793fd7edbadf0fae651f55c1da3b638da72

Under

Invested

$4,910.21

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

72%

1833-721 (2554)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,330.99

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$179.34

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

maxiplayer

Under

Invested

$2,087.3

Value

$984.74

PnL

-$93.57

Record

77%

574-175 (749)

eskilloCTR

Over

Invested

$101.99

Value

$331.47

PnL

+$229.48

Record

40%

472-700 (1172)

0x3bf57663998170f8Ca96c5E91fef4092A8aa2307-1780525562609

Under

Invested

$187.49

Value

$225

PnL

+$37.51

Record

81%

1826-436 (2262)

0x5415e0326703e29A16f6B260Ce3C85692EF0F764-1781687530226CTR

Over

Invested

$376

Value

$104

PnL

-$272

Record

38%

154-254 (408)

torta.techCTR

Over

Invested

$100.66

Value

$93.47

PnL

-$7.19

Record

75%

6123-2031 (8154)

zxc368<$100

Under

Invested

$7.36

Value

$6.41

PnL

-$0.95

Record

99%

9029-127 (9156)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpUnder 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.