Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 51¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25

Yes50¢No50¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$11.41

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 50.5¢

-15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes50%

No51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,024

Combined PnL-$163.46

Yes6 traders

Total Value$939.69

Total Shares2,247

Combined PnL+$152.05

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 56.6¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$129.34	56% 2033-1584 (3617)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 39¢	$545.1	$691.06	+$145.96	68% 31181-14989 (46170)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$454.25	$456.25	+$2	57% 1459-1082 (2541)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31¢	$290.77	$272.01	-$18.76
└ No leg	Noavg 63¢	$163.48	$184.24	+$20.76
VeryLucky888	Noavg 74.9¢	$394.64	$360.4	-$4.08	58% 31709-22957 (54666)
CA CannaeCTR	Yesavg 23¢	$163.91	$206.67	+$3.56	53% 13584-12026 (25610)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 66.1¢	$137.23	$106.98	-$30.26	53% 12232-10963 (23195)
RN1<$100	Noavg 50¢	$69.44	$70.13	+$0.69	55% 43593-35871 (79464)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$24.99	$25.88	+$0.89	51% 6573-6335 (12908)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$5.76	$6.96	+$1.2	75% 2665-901 (3566)
RA rabbitfoot1CTR<$100	Yesavg 45¢	$5.59	$5.53	-$0.06	53% 901-789 (1690)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 78¢	$5.46	$5.18	-$0.28	53% 1872-1637 (3509)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$3.09	$3.58	+$0.49	57% 1491-1104 (2595)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.55	-$0.2	55% 4850-4034 (8884)

Anon455

Invested

$1,798

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$129.34

Record

56%

2033-1584 (3617)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$545.1

Value

$691.06

PnL

+$145.96

Record

68%

31181-14989 (46170)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$454.25

Value

$456.25

PnL

+$2

Record

57%

1459-1082 (2541)

Both legs:

Yes$290.7731¢-$18.76

No$163.4863¢+$20.76

VeryLucky888

Invested

$394.64

Value

$360.4

PnL

-$4.08

Record

58%

31709-22957 (54666)

CannaeCTR

Yes

Invested

$163.91

Value

$206.67

PnL

+$3.56

Record

53%

13584-12026 (25610)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$137.23

Value

$106.98

PnL

-$30.26

Record

53%

12232-10963 (23195)

RN1<$100

Invested

$69.44

Value

$70.13

PnL

+$0.69

Record

55%

43593-35871 (79464)

fooooolCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.99

Value

$25.88

PnL

+$0.89

Record

51%

6573-6335 (12908)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.76

Value

$6.96

PnL

+$1.2

Record

75%

2665-901 (3566)

rabbitfoot1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.59

Value

$5.53

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

901-789 (1690)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$5.46

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

1872-1637 (3509)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.09

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$0.49

Record

57%

1491-1104 (2595)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0.2

Record

55%

4850-4034 (8884)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 51%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.